Government 101

[MUSIC PLAYING] - Hello, everyone. Welcome back to the Government 101 Podcast, a podcast run by Minnesota State University, Mankato, students and faculty to help you understand and navigate modern US politics and government. Today we'll be talking about the 2024 congressional elections. My name is Ben Livingston, and I'll be your host for this episode. I'm joined by Joseph Kunkel, Professor Emeritus of Political Science at MSU, as well as Associate Professor of Political Science Fred Slocum. Thanks for being here.

- Thank you.

- I just want to start out-- I just want to-- I listed some of the notable races here in Minnesota, starting out with the second district. Incumbent Democrat Angie Craig will be facing off against Republican challenger Joe Teirab and third-party candidate Thomas Bowman, who's recently entered the race. According to the Pioneer Press, Bowman, who's running as a, quote, "constitutional conservative," was recruited by a secretive group with ties to Democratic-aligned political consulting firms. This is, of course, reminiscent of both 2022 and 2020, when Craig faced outside challengers from the state's Legal Marijuana Now Party, who were both accused of having Republican help.

The Cook political voting index, which measures the partisanship of a district or state, rates the district as plus 1 Democrat. Three race ratings put it as lean Democratic, while Decision Desk HQ and The Hill rate it as likely Democratic. And this race is likely to be one of few to decide control of the hotly contested House of Representatives. Republicans currently hold a very slim majority.

Another race is the first congressional district, which covers Mankato in southern Minnesota. Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad is facing Democrat Rachel Bowman. The Cook PVI is R plus 7, and all major race ratings put it as solidly Republican. There's also the fifth district, Ilhan Omar's district, where, in a closely watched race, face primary challenger Don Samuels for the second time in a row. Samuels lost to Omar in 2022 by just two points.

However, this time around, Omar grew her lead to a comfortable 13 points. Omar was an exception to some of her progressive colleagues, including Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman, who both lost their primaries to more moderate challengers, who were funded by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, a pro-Israel lobbying group. And Omar is expected to win in the deep-blue district. And lastly, the 2024 Minnesota Senate election features incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar seeking re-election.

She has served since 2007. She's running against Republican Royce White. Klobuchar is a well-known figure and typically has stronger margins, especially in rural areas, compared to other Democrats in the state. And she currently leads by 11 points in the polls and is expected to win. So looking at all these races, especially the Minnesota race, one trend I see is that if you look at the margins through all the Klobuchar's races, you see they get slimmer and slimmer. If you look at the map especially, you see she loses a lot of ground with rural voters, which is typically her strength.

It's kind of a bigger trend of politics being nationalized. So how do you think the increasingly nationalized political landscape will influence races in Minnesota and across the country? I'll start with you.

- One long-term trend has been partisan polarization. And that, I think, renders Republican-- already Republican-leaning districts more safely Republican and more Democratic-leaning districts more safely Democratic. I mean, the big trend has been that, roughly since the 1960s, the ideological diversity of both parties in Congress has diminished greatly. And in 1968, for example, if you look at-- there was a-- if you look at the distribution of Congressional Democrats, there was a considerable tail on the right which overlapped with the tail of liberal Republicans on the left.

That degree, that overlap in Congress has diminished to virtually zero, where-- so today, the most conservative Democrats that remain in Congress are to the left of the most liberal Republicans. There is no overlap between the parties anymore, and most of the polarization has taken place on the right. It's what's called asymmetrical polarization.

- Professor Kunkel.

- It's also the reason there are so few competitive districts. Because the districts are-- so many districts are going solidly one way or the other and have become even more so. First district, that we're in, for example, that Tim Walz held when he first won that, he had quite a bit more support in the rural and small-town areas than he did in the end. But that rural vote in those red areas went down and down, which probably helped him decide to run for governor as well.

- Talk about the urban-rural divide. What do you credit for that trend?

- Well, it's part of the big-- that's a big question. Explains a lot about our politics today and generally is a feeling, I think, in small-town, rural America that they're being left behind and both economically and in terms of cultural change. And a lot of what's going on in the cities, many people in the rural areas don't identify with, holding on to their religious faith in a stronger way and more for traditional values. And well, as Fred said, the parties just don't-- you don't overlap.

You don't have liberal Republicans anymore. You don't have liberal Republicans, and you don't have conservative Democrats, really, to speak of. And people are choosing up their sides. And the country's more divided than it's been in any time since the Civil War, if not the 1890s.

- Urban areas are more diverse, racially, ethnically, have larger immigrant populations, Asian American populations, Latino populations, African American and Black populations. A lot of the rural areas are lopsidedly white. So you have diverse urban cores and increasingly diverse suburbs around a lot of American cities. And when Donald Trump has famously used the phrase big, beautiful suburbs, but he's hearkening back to a day when the suburbs were predominantly white. That is no longer the case.

And a lot of suburbs around the country, including in the Twin Cities and areas like Hopkins and others, which have become-- Richfield-- become more racially and ethnically diverse-- and you see the same thing happening in Atlanta, in Atlanta, Georgia. Cobb County, once a bastion of white conservatism in the 1990s, no longer. A lot of middle-class Blacks have moved to Cobb County. Asian Americans, South Asian, Indian, and populations in others. And Cobb County is much more diverse now than it was three decades ago.

- Same token, that's why the suburbs are the swing areas now. And Minnesota is a good example of that, that the most competitive race you've got is that second district with Angie Craig. And that's going to be-- you can look in many other states, and that's going to be replicated, that those handful of, what, 24, at most, competitive races around the country, a lot of them are going to be in suburban areas. And the presidential contest is-- could be decided in suburbs of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

- Atlanta and Charlotte.

- Sure.

- Yeah.

- Talked a lot about the racial lines. What do you think about the education piece of that? Of course, the saying was that the Republicans were the country club party and that role has-- would you say that role has swapped, that Democrats have taken the role of being the country club party, meaning attracting more college-educated voters, people-- more affluent voters? Would you agree with that trend or agree with that saying?

- To a limited extent. What's happened is that during the 1930s, '40s, '50s, into the '60s, there was a strong social class basis for voting where people with lower incomes voted Democratic and fewer years of education voted Democratic. And we've seen that relationship weaken considerably with college graduates, and especially people with graduate degrees, now strongly preferring the Democrats, whereas Democrats-- so Democrats have gained ground largely due to more progressive positions on cultural and social issues among more educated Americans.

But they've lost ground among the white working class. Democrats have lost ground.

- Well, I'd say we definitely have had-- finally had a realignment of the parties in this country. When I was teaching, it was a-- whole lecture was on the five party systems. And we had the Jeffersonian Democrat-Republicans and the Federalists, and then we had the Whigs and the Democrats. And in the late 19th century, early 20th century, Republicans were the dominant party in this country, and Democratic Party was pretty much supported in cities only and by a lot of recent immigrant groups.

In the 1930s, you had a big change then, that Fred talked about, when working people, immigrants went to Democratic Party and made Democrats the majority party up until the 1960s. And since the 1960s and the period of Nixon, you've had this resorting, where the cultural issues, civil rights issues, racial issues have become more important alongside the economic issues. And it seemed like we were always looking for, is that realignment coming? Or has it happened yet?

And I think this switch in education, that's one of one of the biggest predictors of how people are going to vote in the presidential election and down the ballot, is if you have more education, you're more likely to vote for the Democrats. Less education, for the Republicans. And you just don't have ticket splitting the way you used to either. But as Fred said, the politics have become more nationalized so that your vote, whether you're voting for Teirab or whether you're voting for Angie Craig, that's going to be a great big predictor on whether you're voting for Trump or Harris in the presidential race.

There's going to be very few that are going to split their tickets. One who's going to benefit from that is going to be Klobuchar. And Klobuchar is very popular. As you said, her share of the rural vote has declined. But she has, as much as you can have, tremendous popularity in a purple state like this. She does. And then the Republicans helped her out by nominating one of the wildest people that they could.

- So how do you see the top of the ticket influencing down-ballot races, especially with Tim Walz, a Minnesota native?

- I think it's bound to help Democrats to have Walz running.

- I would think it would have a marginal impact of maybe two to four percentage points having Walz on the top of the ticket. Both he and Klobuchar are really cut from the mold of Minnesota political culture. I mean, they're both, I think, very consistent with it. And that political culture used to be bipartisan. I mean, there were Republicans like Dave Durenberger and Arne Carlson from past eras who were not the bomb throwers that we see today on the right-- you know, the Lauren Boeberts and Marjorie Taylor Greenes and Donald Trumps.

I mean, it seems like the bomb throwers on the right are the predominant voices, it seems. And if you don't support Trump in today's Republican Party, you're a pariah. Look at Liz Cheney.

- Yeah.

- Another race I would say is pretty notable is the third congressional district. As you guys know, that is Dean Phillips's seat. He ran unsuccessfully against Biden in the primary. What do you guys think was his intention, and what do you think he has planned for the future?

- We don't know what he's doing in the future. We really don't care. He's shot his wad, basically. I have to say, I was as critical of him running against Biden as anybody. But he turned out to be right that Biden was very weak, that Biden was too old. So he was right. But he doesn't want to-- he didn't want to continue. Serving in the US House of Representatives is not as fun as it used to be, I think.

- [LAUGHS]

- And for somebody with his kind of money, he doesn't need it. I was a little surprised he didn't go back and try to run for that district. But he burned so many bridges being the only one who would try to take on Biden. But he was right, and I was wrong.

- I would expect his future career to not be in public service, at least for quite a while.

- That's one of the districts, that third district, that could go either way. I mean, he won that district by, I don't know, nine points or so last time. But I think it's going to be a lot closer this time. And Republicans have a more reasonable candidate in Tad Jude, a former judge, I think maybe state legislator as well. So if you're watching any races, the third and the second-- in the first district here, I know Rachel Bowman-- some of her fundraising emails says that they're almost tied in some of their polls or showing them in better shape.

She's not getting any help from the national party. That was the same story with Walz in '06, though. He never got any help from the national party and the House Democratic Campaign Committee until probably the last two weeks, two or three weeks, when polls were showing that he had a shot of winning. And then they start dumping some money into the district and helped him out. So it's possible that if Bowman were to show some strength in polling that she might get some help.

She's a good candidate. But Finstad's a-- fits the district-- farmer. He votes as Trump-y as anybody, voted to shut down the government last week. But he does it in a less obnoxious way than Jim Hagedorn did.

- So I just want to-- finally, I just want to take a look at the picture-- the national picture of things. You got the Senate-- Senate and House are both very close. I know Senate races in Ohio and Montana are definitely going to be the ones to decide who has control of the Senate and, in turn, see if the future president has any-- will be able to pass their policies.

So I just want to get your take on-- just in conclusion, what do you think of the state of the national races? How do you see things going in November?

- Well, the map leans in Republicans' favor this time around because Democrats are defending-- well, the other seat you didn't mention is West Virginia. But that one is probably a goner. I mean, Trump carried West Virginia by 40 percentage points. So the seat formerly held by Joe Manchin is, I think, one that no serious Democrat thinks they can continue to hold. So that leaves Ohio, where the incumbent senator, Sherrod Brown, is in a tough contest, and Montana, where the incumbent Democratic senator, Jon Tester, is likewise.

So those are traditionally red states. And so Republicans, I think, feel buoyed by that and maybe bullish on their chances of winning those seats. The odd thing about Senate races is that one third of senators are up for re-election every two years, every two-year cycle, and the map often tilts towards one party or the other in any individual cycle but often will flip to an advantage for the other party the next time around. And I think-- so the map favors Republicans this time around because of Democrats defending more seats and especially defending seats in three pretty red states-- West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio.

But I think in-- what I've read, in 2026, is that the map is more favorable to Democrats that time around.

- And how do you see the House going?

- 2026, all but maybe two or three states are going to be a sure thing for Democrats and a sure thing for Republicans. And I'd expect Republicans to win a slight majority in the Senate this time. It's going to take-- it could be some kind of a blue wave. Maybe they can pick up Florida, Democrats. Maybe they can pick up Texas. But it's almost counting on that. And so I think people-- Democrats will be in for a rude awakening when-- if Harris becomes president, she'll have a lot of trouble facing a Democratic-- or Republican Senate.

- I think Republicans have a slim majority in the House. And the race district, too, will likely be one of those districts that decide who controls the House. How do you see the House playing out?

- Well, it's difficult to say. I don't think I can generate a confident prediction at this time. Margins are narrow. And my sense is that Republicans have perhaps maxed out their rural districts. But Democrats may have room to gain a few suburban districts that aren't currently in their hands.

- Yeah. And California and New York-- on Long Island in New York, there are several House seats that went to Republicans that Democrats are counting on taking back.

- Is that George Santos's old seat?

- Santos and some other ones there. It seems to me Democrats have a pretty good shot at taking control of the House. But Cook political report is seeing it go stick Republican still, with maybe a two-vote majority. Whether the voters paid attention to what's been going on in terms of the House of Representatives-- it's been the most chaotic and unproductive House of Representatives in decades, no doubt.

- Well, that will conclude our episode for today. I'd like to thank our guests, Fred Slocum and Joseph Kunkel. I'm Ben Livingston. I've been your host. The Government 101 Podcast is a production of the Political Science Program and the Politics and Policy Student Organization at Minnesota State University, Mankato. Any views expressed are solely those of the podcast participants and do not necessarily represent the views of Minnesota State, Mankato, or any affiliated parties. Thanks for joining us here on the Government 101 Podcast, and have a wonderful day.

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